Improving Atmospheric River Forecasts Act

I 118TH CONGRESS 1ST SESSION H. R. 3966 To accelerate subseasonal to seasonal prediction skills related to precipitation forecasts for water management in the western United States, improve atmospheric river forecasts across the country, and for other purposes. IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES JUNE 9, 2023 Mr. MIKE GARCIA of California (for himself and Mr. OBERNOLTE) introduced the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology A BILL To accelerate subseasonal to seasonal prediction skills related to precipitation forecasts for water management in the western United States, improve atmospheric river fore- casts across the country, and for other purposes. Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representa- 1 tives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, 2 SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE. 3 This Act may be cited as the ‘‘Improving Atmos- 4 pheric River Forecasts Act’’. 5 VerDate Sep 11 2014 02:40 Jul 09, 2023 Jkt 039200 PO 00000 Frm 00001 Fmt 6652 Sfmt 6201 E:\BILLS\H3966.IH H3966 kjohnson on DSK79L0C42PROD with BILLS 2 •HR 3966 IH SEC. 2. SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL FORECASTING PILOT 1 PROJECTS. 2 (a) IMPROVING SUBSEASONAL AND SEASONAL FORE- 3 CASTS.—Subsection (h) of section 1762 of the Food Secu- 4 rity Act of 1985 (15 U.S.C. 8521) is amended to read 5 as follows: 6 ‘‘(h) SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL FORECASTING 7 PILOT PROJECTS.— 8 ‘‘(1) ESTABLISHMENT.—The Under Secretary 9 shall establish at least one pilot project within the 10 U.S. Weather Research Program of the Oceanic and 11 Atmospheric Research office of the National Oceanic 12 and Atmospheric Administration to support im- 13 proved subseasonal to seasonal precipitation fore- 14 casts for water management in the western United 15 States. 16 ‘‘(2) OBJECTIVES.—In carrying out this sub- 17 section, the Under Secretary shall ensure that a 18 pilot project under paragraph (1) addresses key 19 science challenges to improving forecasts and devel- 20 oping related products described in subsection (c) 21 for water management in the western United States, 22 including the following: 23 ‘‘(A) Improving model resolution, both hor- 24 izontal and vertical, to resolve issues associated 25 with mountainous terrain, such as intensity of 26 VerDate Sep 11 2014 02:40 Jul 09, 2023 Jkt 039200 PO 00000 Frm 00002 Fmt 6652 Sfmt 6201 E:\BILLS\H3966.IH H3966 kjohnson on DSK79L0C42PROD with BILLS 3 •HR 3966 IH precipitation and relative fraction of rain versus 1 snow precipitation. 2 ‘‘(B) Improving fidelity in modeling of— 3 ‘‘(i) the atmospheric boundary layer in 4 mountainous regions; and 5 ‘‘(ii) atmospheric rivers. 6 ‘‘(C) Resolving challenges in predicting 7 winter atmospheric circulation and storm 8 tracks, including periods of blocked versus 9 unblocked flow over the eastern North Pacific 10 Ocean and western United States. 11 ‘‘(D) Advancing scientific understanding of 12 the roles of atmospheric rivers in subseasonal to 13 seasonal precipitation, and developing tools to 14 predict periods of active or inactive atmospheric 15 river landfalls and inland penetration over the 16 western United States. 17 ‘‘(3) ACTIVITIES.—A pilot project under this 18 subsection shall include activities that carry out the 19 following: 20 ‘‘(A) Best implement recommendations of 21 the National Weather Service’s 2019 Report, 22 entitled ‘Subseasonal and Seasonal Forecasting 23 Innovation: Plans for the Twenty-First Cen- 24 tury’. 25 VerDate Sep 11 2014 02:40 Jul 09, 2023 Jkt 039200 PO 00000 Frm 00003 Fmt 6652 Sfmt 6201 E:\BILLS\H3966.IH H3966 kjohnson on DSK79L0C42PROD with BILLS 4 •HR 3966 IH ‘‘(B) Achieve measurable objectives for 1 operational forecast improvement. 2 ‘‘(C) Engage with, and leverage the re- 3 sources of, institutions of higher education (as 4 such term is defined in section 101 of the High- 5 er Education Act of 1965 (20 U.S.C. 1001)) 6 with experience in western precipitation science, 7 as well as entities within the National Oceanic 8 and Atmospheric Administration in existence as 9 of the date of the enactment of this subsection, 10 including the Western Regional Climate Center 11 and the National Centers for Environmental In- 12 formation. 13 ‘‘(D) Are carried out in coordination with 14 the Assistant Administrator for the Office of 15 Oceanic and Atmospheric Research and the Di- 16 rector of the National Weather Service. 17 ‘‘(4) AUTHORIZATION OF APPROPRIATIONS.— 18 From amounts made available to Operations, Re- 19 search, and Facilities at the National Oceanic and 20 Atmospheric Administration, there is authorized to 21 be appropriated $15,000,000 for each of fiscal years 22 2024 through 2028 to carry out this subsection. 23 VerDate Sep 11 2014 02:40 Jul 09, 2023 Jkt 039200 PO 00000 Frm 00004 Fmt 6652 Sfmt 6201 E:\BILLS\H3966.IH H3966 kjohnson on DSK79L0C42PROD with BILLS 5 •HR 3966 IH ‘‘(5) SUNSET.—The authority under this sub- 1 section shall terminate on the date that is five years 2 after the date of the enactment of this subsection.’’ 3 SEC. 3. ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS FORECAST IMPROVEMENT 4 PROGRAM. 5 (a) IN GENERAL.—The Under Secretary, in collabo- 6 ration with the United States weather industry and aca- 7 demic partners, shall establish an atmospheric river fore- 8 cast improvement program (in this section referred to as 9 the ‘‘program’’). 10 (b) GOAL.—The goal of the program shall be to re- 11 duce through the development and extension of accurate, 12 effective, and actionable forecasts and warnings the loss 13 of life and economic losses from atmospheric rivers, in- 14 cluding by— 15 (1) establishing quantitative atmospheric river 16 forecast skill metrics; and 17 (2) developing methods to categorize the inten- 18 sity of atmospheric rivers. 19 (c) INNOVATIVE OBSERVATIONS AND MODELING.— 20 The Under Secretary shall ensure the program periodically 21 examines, tests, and evaluates the value of incorporating 22 innovative observations, such as observations from crewed 23 or uncrewed aircraft, novel airborne and satellite-based 24 snowpack measurements, ocean buoys data, soil moisture 25 VerDate Sep 11 2014 17:19 Jul 09, 2023 Jkt 039200 PO 00000 Frm 00005 Fmt 6652 Sfmt 6201 E:\BILLS\H3966.IH H3966 kjohnson on DSK79L0C42PROD with BILLS 6 •HR 3966 IH monitoring systems, reservoir storage data, observations 1 from mesonets, or other emerging technologies, with re- 2 spect to the improvement of atmospheric river forecasts, 3 predictions, and warnings. 4 (d) PROGRAM PLAN.—Not later than 180 days after 5 the date of the enactment of this Act, the Assistant Ad- 6 ministrator for Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, in co- 7 ordination with the Director of the National Weather 8 Service, shall develop a plan that details the specific re- 9 search, development, data acquisition, and technology 10 transfer activities, as well as corresponding resources and 11 timelines, necessary to achieve the goals of the program 12 under subsection (b). 13 (e) ANNUAL BUDGET FOR PLAN SUBMITTAL.—After 14 the development of the plan pursuant to subsection (d), 15 the Under Secretary, acting through the Assistant Admin- 16 istrator for Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, and in co- 17 ordination with the Director of the National Weather 18 Service, shall, not less frequently than annually, submit 19 to Congress a proposed budget corresponding with the ac- 20 tivities identified in such plan. 21 (f) DEFINITIONS.—In this section, the terms ‘‘Under 22 Secretary’’ and ‘‘weather industry’’ have the meanings 23 given such terms in section 2 of the Weather Research 24 VerDate Sep 11 2014 02:40 Jul 09, 2023 Jkt 039200 PO 00000 Frm 00006 Fmt 6652 Sfmt 6201 E:\BILLS\H3966.IH H3966 kjohnson on DSK79L0C42PROD with BILLS 7 •HR 3966 IH and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 (15 U.S.C. 1 8501). 2 Æ VerDate Sep 11 2014 02:40 Jul 09, 2023 Jkt 039200 PO 00000 Frm 00007 Fmt 6652 Sfmt 6301 E:\BILLS\H3966.IH H3966 kjohnson on DSK79L0C42PROD with BILLS